Israel-Iran War - Second "Nakba"
Death Struggle of Theocracies
Malcolm Nance, a former Navy military intelligence specialist wrote a sobering article stating he anticipates the Israeli-Hamas war to expand into a greater Israel-Iran conflict engulfing the entire Middle East.
“The world is sure Iran intends to avenge the dead using the same group, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its clandestine service of military spies whose job it was to carry out secretive training and assistance to Shia Muslim terrorist groups across the Middle East. Its name is the IRGC al-Quds force. The title is significant as it is Arabic and Farsi for “Jerusalem.”
When Muslims say the word al-Quds, they are referencing the Islamic belief that the prophet Muhammad dreamed that he flew to heaven from the site of the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosque. This location is considered the third holiest shrine in Islam. The liberation of Jerusalem from Israel is one of its principal endeavors. Since Israel is a regional and nuclear superpower, Iran decided to use clandestine terrorist groups to harass them.
Iran’s goal was quite simple: the mullahs were going to surround Israel with Shia Muslim proxy groups that would eventually be able to strike Israel directly.”
Malcolm has provided us with a great analysis of the current situation, but I think it might be helpful to backfill some history (and irony) between Israel and Iran leading up to the current conflict.
Until the Iranian Revolution, Iran was friendly to Israel and used it to develop closer ties to the West. One of the reasons that Iran is so effective in counter-insurgency is it was trained by Israel. “Israel needed Iran more than Iran needed Israel. It was always Israel that was the proactive party, but the Shah also wanted a way to improve its [Iran’s] relations with the US, and at the time Israel was seen as a good way to achieve that aim,” Kvindesland said.
“There was also the prospect of building up the security apparatus, and the [Iranian security and intelligence service] SAVAK was partly trained by Mossad. These were things Iran could get from elsewhere, but Israel was keen to provide them because it needed a partner in the Middle East that was otherwise fairly anti-Zionist and anti-Israel.” Israel's battle was primarily with Sunni Arabs and used the relationship with Shiite Iran to divide the Muslim forces.
"In 1979, the shah was overthrown in a revolution, and a new Islamic Republic of Iran was born.
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, brought about a new worldview that predominantly championed Islam and argued for standing up to “arrogant” world powers and their regional allies, who would oppress others – including Palestinians – to serve their own interests.
This meant that Israel became known in Iran as the “Little Satan” to the “Great Satan” that is the US."
When Iran was a secular state there was no conflict with Israel. But the Revolution transformed Iran into a theocracy and the Ayatollah declared a holy war to "liberate" Jerusalem from the Jews (and also the Sunni Arabs) rightfully returning it to control of the Shiite lineage.
"Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that Khomeini pushed against framing the Palestinian issue as an Arab nationalist cause and sought to transform it into an Islamic cause to provide Iran with not only the ability to champion the Palestinian cause but to lead it.
“To overcome both the Arab-Persian divide and the Sunni-Shia divide, Iran adopted a much more aggressive position on the Palestinian issue to brandish its leadership credentials in the Islamic world and to put Arab regimes allied with the United States on the defensive,” he said."
The concept of a Muslim holy war helps explain the martyrdom of Palestinians sacrificed to restore Jerusalem to Shiite control regardless of the carnage. The second "Nekba" will be Iranians ethnically cleansing the region of both Arab Sunnis and Jews. The wholesale slaughter of the population of Gaza is a feature, not a flaw in Iran's plans.
“Ayatollah Khomeini himself seemed largely driven by his hatred for the West, particularly the United States, which he saw as immoral, and by the personal bile he reserved for the Shah and President Saddam Hussein of Iraq.
His will, read over the radio, was one last tirade against the leaders of the United States and moderate Arab countries: ''May God's curse be upon them.''
The question is whether Iran is biting off more than it can chew. It has few allies in the region and the Sunni Arabs would likely support Israeli and Western nations in eliminating Iranian power in the region. If there is a war between Israel and Iran, you can bet that Israel will not be alone in that fight.
Wouldn't that be a powerful advantage! Israel declaring itself a secular state. I gather that almost half of Israelis identify themselves that way already. Great idea!
Still having trouble understanding specific factions and the long standing grievances and how they divide or might. Thanks for the piece. Feels like we’re being dragged back to the womb of civilization for something like a restart which is only an abstract thought of metaphor, not a reality. I think you’re right about Gaza. I imagine you got Malcom’s letter about Monday and wide protests here and the world. Time will tell in all incredibly incendiary places that have our attention.