Megatons of Technology

Megatons of Technology

“Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”

These shocking words from the Hindu Bhagavat Gita uttered by Oppenheimer on first witnessing the power unleashed by the atom bomb are a subtle reminder of the shockwaves experienced ever more frequently in our current tech-driven world. As Albert Einstein then mused: “It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity.”

‘Disruption’ is a term often used in referencing technological advances. While it is often used as a battle cry between ‘tech bros’ in threatening their competitors’ business models, there is human collateral damage as well. While we swoon over the newest iPhone or Tesla EV features, seldom do we consider the sociological and psychological effects these technological innovations have on human social structures and institutions.

We have government mandates for environmental impact studies and engineering certifications before a building can be constructed, but no such concerns for the effects on the environment and welfare of our existing infrastructure of social and economic wellbeing from the introduction of new technologies. The hollowing out and collapse of the ‘Rust Belt’ industries in the American Northeast and Midwest were both disruptions of outdated technologies and of the lives of individuals and the communities that nurtured and supported them.

The Brookings Institute clearly states the situation we are encountering:

 “Advances in digital technologies hold considerable potential to lift the trajectory of productivity and economic growth and to create new and better jobs to replace old ones. As much as two-thirds of potential productivity growth in major economies over the next decade could be related to the new digital technologies. But technological change is inherently disruptive and entails difficult transitions. It also inevitably creates winners and losers—as does globalization. Policies have a crucial role to play. Unfortunately, they have been slow to adapt to the challenges of change.”

So, the classic metaphor of a train wreck is looming. Huge amounts of capital are being allocated to advancing technology while governments worldwide lag far behind in providing the social ‘capital’ to meet the transitions required of labor to acquire the skills needed to support these new technologies. As more attention and funding is channeled to technology capitalists, fewer resources are being allotted to training and supporting human labor resources inevitably resulting in wealth shifting from labor to capital, and the distribution becoming more unequal.

For instance, the recent Industrial Recovery Act and the Chips and Science Bill allocate $228 billion in the United States primarily to fund industry with no mention of investment in labor training and social safety net funding. It seems the previous offshoring of manufacturing is likely to be followed by an onshoring of immigrant tech laborers, leading to predictable political, social, and economic upheavals.

 The Human Toll

The shocking speed of change combined with a lack of governmental action and support has left many workers spiraling into despair with an increasing sense of isolation and helplessness. Entire social and economic ecosystems have been devasted in the past few decades, resulting in a tragic psychological toll on many individuals and communities.

As the detonation of an atomic bomb caused hundreds of thousands of casualties, disruptive technology has resulted in wounded lives and countless deaths of despair. Since the 1970’s there has been an epidemic of deaths of despair particularly among non-college graduates, where their death rate is more than twice that of college graduates.

Foreign Affairs Magazine explains:

“There has been a long-term, slow-moving undermining of the white working class in the United States. Falling wages and a dearth of good jobs have weakened the basic institutions of working-class life, including marriage, churchgoing, and community. The decline in marriage has contributed significantly to the epidemic of despair among those with less than a four-year college degree: marriage rates among that group at age 40 declined by 50 percent between 1980 and 2018.

These trends among less educated Americans—declines in wages, the quality and number of jobs, marriage, and community life—are central in instilling despair, spurring suicide and other self-inflicted harms, such as alcohol and drug abuse.”

While the U.S. produces much of the research on the diseases of despair, other wealthy developed nations are witnessing a rise in suicide and other problems linked to despair as well. The most technologically advanced Asian nations - Japan, S. Korea, and China - are experiencing rising suicide death rates and plummeting birth rates indicating a loss of hope for the future.

Individual pain and anxiety over disrupting the basic underpinnings of social and economic structures have spread like a pandemic infecting national and worldwide politics. The dramatic shift of capital and wealth to a few individuals and corporations has increased social and political polarization and disconnection from fellow citizens.

As the middle class dissolves either to becoming richer or poorer, politics and power shift as well. We have all experienced the polarization of politics away from the center towards the far left or right adding further isolation and disconnection to others eroding national and cultural identities further escalating anxiety and despair. Digital media and algorithms encourage us to create “bubbles” of information rather than offering a broad spectrum of opinion and analysis. As futurist John Naisbitt warned us: “We are drowning in knowledge but starved for knowledge.” I would add we are thirsting for community as well.

“Where is the Life we have lost in living? Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?”
 - T. S. Eliot

Future Implications

Technological change and growth have critical effects on all aspects of human culture and society. Currently, there is scant oversight or coordination with governments to assess the social and economic impacts of new technology introductions to the public and yet, we are witnessing signs of grave harm to individuals and societies. As the rate and scope of change accelerate, attention needs to be focused on how new technology affects existing social systems and what measures need to be taken to mitigate harm.

New drugs are required to complete a series of stringent test trials and be reviewed by the FDA before they can be distributed to the public. Yet, any new technology, AI, for example, can be distributed worldwide without any certification or coordination with governmental, educational institutions, or financial regulators. Private industry is given free rein to maximize profits while the general public picks up the tab for collateral damages. The stakes now are high, and time is nigh for the tech industry to accept the responsibilities of being a mature industry. It is time for governments to accept their responsibilities and regulate new technology to mitigate harm to citizens. But that is not what is happening.

The Atlantic Magazine describes the current process of kicking the can down the road by both the tech giants and politicians:

“On Friday, leaders from seven major AI companies—OpenAI, Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, and Microsoft—met with Joe Biden and agreed to a set of voluntary safeguards. The companies pledged, sometimes in vague terms, to take actions such as releasing information about security testing, sharing research with academics and governments, reporting “vulnerabilities” in their systems, and working on mechanisms that tell people when content is AI-generated. Many of these are steps that the companies were already taking. And because the commitments made at the White House are voluntary, they aren’t enforceable regulations. Still, they allow the companies, and Biden, to signal to the public that they are working on AI safety. In agreeing to these voluntary precautions, these companies are nodding to the possible risks of their creations while also sacrificing little in their aggressive competition.

“For AI firms, this is a dream scenario, where they can ease regulatory pressure by pretending this fixes the problem, while ultimately continuing business as usual,” Albert Fox Cahn, the executive director of the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project, told me in an email. He added that other companies whose products pose safety risks, such as car manufacturers and nuclear power plants, don’t get to self-regulate.”

What we are experiencing is a few ‘nerd’ billionaires given unrestrained power to totally transform the world’s economic systems and social institutions while primarily concerned with short-term profit motives. What could possibly go wrong?

The same Atlantic article paints the picture for us:

“Leaders in the AI industry are forthcoming about the risks of their tools. A couple of months ago, AI luminaries, including Altman and Bill Gates, signed a one-sentence statement reading: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” (Altman and other AI builders have invited comparisons to Robert Oppenheimer.)”

Conclusion

Collectively, we are on the edge of a technological precipice and admittedly unsure of our footing. The creation of the atomic bomb was under the federal government's direction and rightly recognized as an essential element of our national (and the world’s) collective security. “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI” should get our rapt attention, but instead we tinker around with it, figuring out how to cheat on writing term papers and creating more silly deep flake memes.

Comedian Bill Maher borrowed a quote from Lawrence of Arabia calling the Bedouin tribes “silly people” if they continue to squabble among themselves and fail to work together and take responsibility. The U.S. and much of the world have become “silly people” fiddling while ‘tech bro barbarians’ breach the walls of established civilization and economic order and set it all ablaze.  

What will it take to have us recognize the magnitude of disruption being unleashed? When will we no longer be silly people and take back responsibility for our personal and collective security? Or is it already too late?