What are the odds that anything other than the continued martyrdom of Palestinians will happen? As you said with the right wing in power it is unlikely. How do you feel about cutting off arms sales to Israel? How would that impact all the moving parts?
OK, first there has never been a state of Palestine. There wasn't such for hundreds of years under Ottoman rule, not under the British rule of the Palestine Mandate, and for more than 75 years after the British left. A "two state solution" requires two states and currently there is only one in the region and, yes, it too is dysfunctional.
At the core of all Abrahamic religions is sacred martyrdom - Abraham willingly sacrificing his son to an invisible god. I suggest this may not be a very sound foundation for a compassionate, humane society.
During WWII, most of Christian Europe succumbed to Fascism - blind obedience to a god-like state and extermination of all who are not deemed as part of the totalitarian unified state. The Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Amin al-Husseini, was a rabid antisemite and found a fit between authoritarian Islam and European fascism leading to the emergence of fascist radical Islam we struggle with today and is the basis of Iran's Islamic Republic. No, it is not going away anytime soon. https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Israel is not only a respite for stateless Jews after WWII, but an experiment (perhaps naive) of establishing a Western-style democracy in the midst of the historically tribal, authoritarian Arab world. The West supported and armed Israel not as a nation, but as a bastion of Western liberalism in the Middle East. Israel is resented, not because it is Jewish, but because it is Western.
Israel is fighting Islamic fascism in the Middle East and the U.S. and EU wisely support that struggle. Cutting off arms supplies is self-defeating for the West. So far, we have allowed Israel to do the dirty work for us because they understand what they're dealing with and know this is an existential fight for not only their nation but for democracy. Remember, Israel is the world's tenth largest arms manufacturer and certainly capable of maintaining their defense forces indefinitely. https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/top-10-largest-arms-exporters-in-the-world/
So, what are the 'moving parts' you mention? To understand, you need to ignore the Israel-Palestine drama and concentrate on what is happening in the broader Islamic world - Arab states, Iran, and Turkey. The Arabs and Persians (Iranians) have been fighting each other for more than 1000 years. The Ottoman Empire for more than 300 years kept the region stable by authoritarian control. The collapse of the Empire after WWI left a huge power vacuum and chaos in the region which persists today. Former Ottoman vassal regions were arbitrarily carved up by European imperialist nations adding to the confusion. The discovery of massive petroleum reserves and resulting wealth transfer fueled the flames.
The meddling of the U.S. and Britain in Iran resulted in the Islamic Revolution in Iran and their embrace of fascist radical Islam intent on eradicating Western influences in the entire Islamic world. Iran is using proxies and Arab radical groups to undermine the stability of moderate Arab states. The ancient struggle between Sunni Arabs and Shiite Iranians continues with Israel caught in the crossfire. This is an Islamic problem seeking an Islamic solution. Can the Arabs go beyond their historic tribal disunity and unite against Iran? That is the nexus of the struggle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_revolution
The recent Syrian War was a proxy war of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia against Iran and Russia. The West did not fare well and Iran got all the glory of defeating the Western 'Great Satan' which makes a good recruiting tool for radical Islamism. Iran won round one and is riding on its glory.
Getting back to the repercussions of an arms embargo against Israel, it will only embolden Iran further adding to the confusion in the region. Somehow a coalition of moderate Arab states and Turkey needs to be formed to ruthlessly eliminate Islamic fascism just as we did in Europe after WWII. This can't be done by Israel and the West, but must be home-grown and Islamic in nature. How that happens is beyond my pay grade. Perhaps a reimagining of the Ottoman Empire lead by Turkey and Saudi Arabia is the keystone. We are talking about an Islamic reformation and it will likely not resemble Western liberalism and will be ruthlessly bloody. Meanwhile, Israel will likely need increased arms supplies to stay above the fray.
So much here. Thank you for the in-depth (to me at least) explanation. You are talking about transformational (not simply spiritual as it is considered) change in this fight against Islamic fascism in a time when many of the countries that need to be involved are themselves turning towards fascism, the US for one. Do you see a light at the end of this tunnel or is it merely a speeding train?
Do I see a light at the end of the tunnel? Interesting you asked this question while Russia is hosting a BRICS meeting attempting to rally the developing world toward a more anti-Western illiberal future. Remember the Magic 8 Ball? One of the answers was "Ask again later". https://magic-8ball.com/magic-8-ball-answers/
Western liberal culture is relatively new, only emerging from the ashes of WWII. Until then most of Europe was still ruled by monarchy and aristocracy. Naively we imagine our system is the penultimate and everyone will eventually choose to go there. Democracy doesn't work very well in highly educated Western cultures and has been an abject failure in the Middle East and Asia. It also might not sell well in Africa and parts of S. America.
This is the "Asian Century" and their collectivism and stark pragmatism will be a challenge to foreign Western influences. We have never been here before so we have no reliable roadmap of how it will turn out. Russian fascism, Islamic fascism combined with a resurgence of European/American fascism is truly dangerous. Japan was deadly fascist during WWII and Asian fascism is certainly an awesome force to be reckoned with. Currently China keeps it in check with its authoritarian Confucian socialism which the West actively attempts to sabotage. We might want to rethink that...
There are technological factors, climate change, wealth inequity, and over-population factors clouding the overall vision of the future. All of these are experienced inequitably throughout the world and within different cultures. There won't be any unified "global solution" that fits all and I see a period of radical inequity and unrest. How bad that becomes is not determinable now. There are two major world powers now - the West (U.S. and EU) and China. It might be wise to encourage some sort of detente and an alignment of forces to collectively meet the existential challenges ahead. Let me check my Magic 8 Ball on the probability of that...
Bang on! This reminds me of the North Vietnamese general who admitted that they had lost the battle, but added that they had won the war. The two are different.
Yes, it is difficult for our Western liberal minds to understand that Iran wants Hamas and Hezbollah to 'lose' and become marytrs. Not only does this look bad for Israel, but it also riles the 'Arab Street' toward radicalism weakening moderate Sunni nations. To paraphrase the old Catholic saying: "Kill them all for Allah knows which are his own..." ~ Arnaud Amalic
Which brings up the other phrase: "You can't win for losing..."
What are the odds that anything other than the continued martyrdom of Palestinians will happen? As you said with the right wing in power it is unlikely. How do you feel about cutting off arms sales to Israel? How would that impact all the moving parts?
OK, first there has never been a state of Palestine. There wasn't such for hundreds of years under Ottoman rule, not under the British rule of the Palestine Mandate, and for more than 75 years after the British left. A "two state solution" requires two states and currently there is only one in the region and, yes, it too is dysfunctional.
At the core of all Abrahamic religions is sacred martyrdom - Abraham willingly sacrificing his son to an invisible god. I suggest this may not be a very sound foundation for a compassionate, humane society.
During WWII, most of Christian Europe succumbed to Fascism - blind obedience to a god-like state and extermination of all who are not deemed as part of the totalitarian unified state. The Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Amin al-Husseini, was a rabid antisemite and found a fit between authoritarian Islam and European fascism leading to the emergence of fascist radical Islam we struggle with today and is the basis of Iran's Islamic Republic. No, it is not going away anytime soon. https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Israel is not only a respite for stateless Jews after WWII, but an experiment (perhaps naive) of establishing a Western-style democracy in the midst of the historically tribal, authoritarian Arab world. The West supported and armed Israel not as a nation, but as a bastion of Western liberalism in the Middle East. Israel is resented, not because it is Jewish, but because it is Western.
Israel is fighting Islamic fascism in the Middle East and the U.S. and EU wisely support that struggle. Cutting off arms supplies is self-defeating for the West. So far, we have allowed Israel to do the dirty work for us because they understand what they're dealing with and know this is an existential fight for not only their nation but for democracy. Remember, Israel is the world's tenth largest arms manufacturer and certainly capable of maintaining their defense forces indefinitely. https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/top-10-largest-arms-exporters-in-the-world/
So, what are the 'moving parts' you mention? To understand, you need to ignore the Israel-Palestine drama and concentrate on what is happening in the broader Islamic world - Arab states, Iran, and Turkey. The Arabs and Persians (Iranians) have been fighting each other for more than 1000 years. The Ottoman Empire for more than 300 years kept the region stable by authoritarian control. The collapse of the Empire after WWI left a huge power vacuum and chaos in the region which persists today. Former Ottoman vassal regions were arbitrarily carved up by European imperialist nations adding to the confusion. The discovery of massive petroleum reserves and resulting wealth transfer fueled the flames.
The meddling of the U.S. and Britain in Iran resulted in the Islamic Revolution in Iran and their embrace of fascist radical Islam intent on eradicating Western influences in the entire Islamic world. Iran is using proxies and Arab radical groups to undermine the stability of moderate Arab states. The ancient struggle between Sunni Arabs and Shiite Iranians continues with Israel caught in the crossfire. This is an Islamic problem seeking an Islamic solution. Can the Arabs go beyond their historic tribal disunity and unite against Iran? That is the nexus of the struggle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_revolution
The recent Syrian War was a proxy war of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia against Iran and Russia. The West did not fare well and Iran got all the glory of defeating the Western 'Great Satan' which makes a good recruiting tool for radical Islamism. Iran won round one and is riding on its glory.
Getting back to the repercussions of an arms embargo against Israel, it will only embolden Iran further adding to the confusion in the region. Somehow a coalition of moderate Arab states and Turkey needs to be formed to ruthlessly eliminate Islamic fascism just as we did in Europe after WWII. This can't be done by Israel and the West, but must be home-grown and Islamic in nature. How that happens is beyond my pay grade. Perhaps a reimagining of the Ottoman Empire lead by Turkey and Saudi Arabia is the keystone. We are talking about an Islamic reformation and it will likely not resemble Western liberalism and will be ruthlessly bloody. Meanwhile, Israel will likely need increased arms supplies to stay above the fray.
So much here. Thank you for the in-depth (to me at least) explanation. You are talking about transformational (not simply spiritual as it is considered) change in this fight against Islamic fascism in a time when many of the countries that need to be involved are themselves turning towards fascism, the US for one. Do you see a light at the end of this tunnel or is it merely a speeding train?
Do I see a light at the end of the tunnel? Interesting you asked this question while Russia is hosting a BRICS meeting attempting to rally the developing world toward a more anti-Western illiberal future. Remember the Magic 8 Ball? One of the answers was "Ask again later". https://magic-8ball.com/magic-8-ball-answers/
Western liberal culture is relatively new, only emerging from the ashes of WWII. Until then most of Europe was still ruled by monarchy and aristocracy. Naively we imagine our system is the penultimate and everyone will eventually choose to go there. Democracy doesn't work very well in highly educated Western cultures and has been an abject failure in the Middle East and Asia. It also might not sell well in Africa and parts of S. America.
This is the "Asian Century" and their collectivism and stark pragmatism will be a challenge to foreign Western influences. We have never been here before so we have no reliable roadmap of how it will turn out. Russian fascism, Islamic fascism combined with a resurgence of European/American fascism is truly dangerous. Japan was deadly fascist during WWII and Asian fascism is certainly an awesome force to be reckoned with. Currently China keeps it in check with its authoritarian Confucian socialism which the West actively attempts to sabotage. We might want to rethink that...
There are technological factors, climate change, wealth inequity, and over-population factors clouding the overall vision of the future. All of these are experienced inequitably throughout the world and within different cultures. There won't be any unified "global solution" that fits all and I see a period of radical inequity and unrest. How bad that becomes is not determinable now. There are two major world powers now - the West (U.S. and EU) and China. It might be wise to encourage some sort of detente and an alignment of forces to collectively meet the existential challenges ahead. Let me check my Magic 8 Ball on the probability of that...
Detente? Accent in there somewhere
It’s a bit of a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation.
There are no good options, just less bad ones.
Bang on! This reminds me of the North Vietnamese general who admitted that they had lost the battle, but added that they had won the war. The two are different.
Yes, it is difficult for our Western liberal minds to understand that Iran wants Hamas and Hezbollah to 'lose' and become marytrs. Not only does this look bad for Israel, but it also riles the 'Arab Street' toward radicalism weakening moderate Sunni nations. To paraphrase the old Catholic saying: "Kill them all for Allah knows which are his own..." ~ Arnaud Amalic
Which brings up the other phrase: "You can't win for losing..."